Statistics don’t look good for COIN

Things are going from bad to worse in Afghanistan. How is it possible to conduct a successful counterinsurgency campaign in a country that 1.) doesn’t support it’s own government; 2.) despises foreigners – especially non-Muslims; and 3.) in many cases, prefers the Taliban?

From a post by Juan Cole highlighting the recent Pentagon study on the war in Afghanistan:

NATO is operating in about 100 districts of the country (the vague equivalent of counties).

Number of Afghans in 92 districts (assessed for their relationship to the Federal government) that actively support the government of Hamid Karzai: 0

Number of districts out of 92 that are neutral toward the government: 44

Number of districts sympathetic to the insurgency in March 2010: 48

Number of districts that had been sympathetic to the insurgency in June, 2009: 33

Increase in violent incidents from Feb. 2009 to March 2010: 87 percent.

I support our military – which means I want our troops to have the best equipment, training, leaders, and strategy possible. When we have been fighting in Afghanistan for nearly nine years, and as we see above, our “won-loss record” (regarding the districts referenced above) is 0-48-44, it is past time to consider changing game plans. And by changing plans, I do NOT mean leaving Afghanistan. We have no choice but to fight.

This would never fly in sports, and it sure as hell shouldn’t be the case when lives are being lost.