Sanctions won’t stop Iran from nuking up

Matthew Levitt exposes the fact that sanctions won’t stop Iran’s nuclear proliferation. From his testimony to the Senate Comittee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs:

…targeted financial sanctions were never intended to solve the problem of Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. Sanctions are no silver bullet. On their own, these financial tools can only do so much. But coupled with other tools — especially robust diplomacy, but also a credible military presence in the region — financial measures can effectively create leverage for diplomacy. That diplomacy should focus not only on Iran, but on Russia, China, our European and Asian allies, the Gulf States, and others.

Once the full economic and diplomatic weight of the United States is brought to bear on our enemies, we win every time. History shows that sanctions alone do not work. But this new “soft power” of Obama’s is destined to fail. Why on earth would Iran abandon their nuclear program if they know there is nothing to lose and everything to gain? Ayatollah Khamenei will not abandon his nuclear ambitions because some diplomat asked nicely.

According to the [2007 National Intelligence Estimate], Iran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program in 2003 was “in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran’s previously undeclared nuclear work.” The key judgments conclude that the intelligence community’s “assessment that the [nuclear weapons] program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue that we judged previously.”

What else happened in 2003? It wasn’t some historic moment in diplomatic history, it was the invasion of Iraq. Iran found themselves surrounded by U.S. troops  in Afghanistan and Iraq. Now Obama is implementing “exit strategies” in both countries, which tells Iran not only that our resolve has run out, but also that we mean Iran no harm. The carrot-and-stick approach has become the carrot-and-carrot. Plus, the UN and Europe can’t be counted on for sanctions as they are only out for themselves, and there is good money in doing business with Iran.

Based on this, I believe that Iran will not only have a nuclear arsenal by the end of this year, but also that our government will do absolutely nothing to stop them. This is about legitimacy: Iran saw China emerge as a superpower – not because of their robust economy, but because of their nuclear arsenal.  Iran seeks legitimacy, something that a few nuclear warheads can easily provide.

I also say that Iran will NOT attack Israel as soon as a weapon is ready, because they don’t have to. Iran can move the weapon to Hezbollah, their Lebanese proxy army, who could deploy a nuke into Israel via a tunnel. Iran destroys Israel – and has plausible deniability.

Sanctions alone will not work, as Levitt points out – but apparently they were never intended to.